I was recently free of trading restrictions for a short period of time which provided an opportunity to completely restructure the portfolio. So I thought instead of doing investment #10 I’d just lay them all out and link to relevant research. Normal service will resume in a few weeks.
I’ve tried to group into rough themes and order by position size. I’ve excluded various pension funds, dry powder and venture cap from the portfolio weights. These are primarily conservatively invested and allows me to take more risk in this account.
NB: Refer to the disclaimer. These are not recommendations or ideal portfolio weights. Just where I so happen to have landed.
Small and micro-caps - 18%
Cipher Pharmaceuticals: 5.5%. Highest conviction small cap position. Have added substantially since the write-up (credits included in that post, but
and the big boys on this).Moberg Pharma: 2.5%. See above, more leveraged, less of a safety net but same theme.
Thermal Energy International: 0.5%. Canadian micro cap. focussed on energy efficiency solutions for industrials. See post here.
Auto Partner: 0.5%. Distributor of automotive spare parts in Poland and Europe. Write-up from
of Xpel fame here.Sygnity: 0.8%. A potential mini Constellation out of Poland. See write ups by
here and hereShelly: 0.7%. Relatively recent addition, think I came across it in Twitter spaces hosted by
. There is a comprehensive write-up by Arauca Capital here. Again starter position, no conviction yet.Cronos. 0.3%. Very recent addition, leading Canadian canabis co. Big tobacco backing, scale, cost advantage and leading brands. Bombed out sector with multiple catalysts. Idea from
in a post here. I need to do more work and size it up.Dino Polska: 0.2%. Starter position need to do more work. Polish supermarkets and a Twitter growth darling. A recent update from
here.Kraken Robotics: 0.4%. Microcap club find paid link here. Produces a technologically superior sonar system and primarily a defence contractor.
Pioneer Power Solutions: 0.5%. Microcap club find paid link here. Power generation units and mobile EV charging stations. CEO was on a
podcast here recently.Sanara MedTech: 0.6%. Microcap club find paid link here. Surgical products to prevent infection and improve healing post surgery.
Streamline Health Solutions: 0.6%. Microcap club find paid link here. Pre-bill auditing tool for hospitals in the US.
Haypp: 0.2%. Nicotine pouches. In all honesty done zero work on it so far. Skimmed a pitch by
, bought tiny size to get myself interested.North Atlantic Smaller Companies Trust: 5%. Closed-end fund managed by Tom Mills, mostly focussed on UK and US small caps. Trades at a 30% discount to NAV, highly aligned manager (Mills owns 30%), provides exposure to private/unlisted investments and active approaches and compound annual returns of ~13% since inception (1982). Ultimate combination of unloved stocks… UK, small cap., value plus you get an experienced manager and a big discount to NAV. Presentation here.
Energy - 32%
Nuclear - 15%
Used pull back to add yet more. Still a 2-3 year cycle to come. Off-shore oil services, nail fungus and nuclear are the higher conviction positions across portfolio. See detailed post here.
Physical Uranium (YCA/U-U): 8%.
Uranium miner ETFs, URNP & URNJ: 7%. These have done well but I don’t think cleanest way to play it. Hand was forced into ETFs for a period.
Coal - 3%
Alpha Metallurgical: 1%. See post here.
Coal ETF: 0.5%. See Alpha Met post below, similar theme.
Peabody: 0.5%. Buying back stock. Trades at 5x P/E. Elliott have nearly exited.
Natural Resource Partners: 0.5% . I’d love to make this bigger but there’s some severe tax consequences for being non-US tax domiciled. Great stock though,
again latest update here.
Oil & Gas - 8%
BRNT & WTI: 3%. Oil thesis mainly covered in the Journey energy piece. These were added at opportune moments in last 12-18 months and ~25% in the money. Also offer some roll carry.
XLEP: 2%. US major exposure on same theme of undervalued O&G. Probably not the ideal way to play it but was symptomatic of some trading restrictions at the time.
Harbour Energy: 1%. This was another “cheap” London listed O&G play. It came pre Wintershall acquisition announcement and has done reasonably well so far.
DNO: 0.7%. Probably more special sit than O&G. Trades <2x EBITDA on depressed earnings and potential Iran-Turkey pipeline reopening catalyst. Write-up from
hereJourney Energy: 0.5%. I’m slightly out the money on this already. Patient holding with convexity to oil price. Nat. Gas rebound would probably help too. Write up here.
YPF: 0.3%. This was a bit of a Frankenstein trade. Partly pre Argentina election Milei trade, part cheap oil trade. Has done very well, just leaving it to run.
Diversified Energy: 0.2%. Much more complex story, see write up here.
Permian Basin Royalty Trust: 0.1%. Another one from
, see initial write-up here. I’m double digit down on this, considering adding more.Eco Petrol: 0.1%. Legacy position, very attractive dividend yield.
Oil services - 6%
Valaris: 2.3%. Thesis remains solid, taking longer than expected to play out. Likely another 1-2 years. Add more at ~$60. See write-up here.
Tidewater: 1.6%. Wish I had more of it. Tripled since first entry. Broadly same thesis as Valaris but managing cycle better, shorter term contract book and solid management team.
Gulf Marine Services: 0.9%. Been a really good trade wish i had more, see post here.
Odfjell Technologies: 0.7%. Similar theme, smaller more abstract way to play it. Spin-off.
BORR: 0.6%. Recent addition on the same theme.
Precious metals - 17%
Both gold and silver both look cheap relative to the money supply and stock market. Gold has risen of late in spite of huge retail outflows, with central banks picking up the slack. Silver is bombed out, in supply deficit and has the added kicker of structurally growing demand from electronics and solar. Both should reduce volatility in the overall portfolio and provide a partial hedge against certain downside risks. With the exception of the silver miners, I expect these positions to be virtually permanent parts of the portfolio.
Physical gold: 8%.
Silver miners (SILG): 3.5%.
Physical silver: 2.5%.
Angico Eagle Mines: 0.3%. High quality dividend paying miner, low on the cost curve.
Orogen Royalties: 0.1%. Gold royalty company was mentioned on Value Hive podcast recently.
Tin - 2%
Alphamin Resources: 2.3%. Nice supply-demand dynamics in tin, see post here by Brandon Beylo on the Tin market. Alphamin has a relatively easy ramp for a new mine coming on-stream this year.
Odd & ends, special sits and shameless punts - 3%
Burford Capital: 1.5%. Long-term soft spot for their esoteric business model. Upside in YPF settlement, attractive long-term, uncorrelated returns regardless.
Ascent Resources: 0.7%. $10mn market cap. AIM listed O&G explorer seeking $650mn in damages the Slovenian government. See write-up here by
Midwest Energy Emissions: 0.4%. Found it via @InvestSpecial on Twitter who highlighted @danban__’s idea. Pending compensation for patent infringement case which could be worth more than the market cap.
Enovix (Jan ’25 call option + equity): 0.2%. this is probably the spivviest trade in the book. I’m 30% out the money on the stock and it is more likely than not to fail. However, solid management team with a good track-record. Upside if they can succeed is huge. A Marc Cohodes long.
Compounders and large caps - 28%
AstraZeneca: 9%. High quality defensive stalwart. Long-term holding, has performed well to grow to this size in the portfolio.
St. Joe: 6%. Long-term value play. Florida migration and development. This is a Kuppy favourite and is Chaired by famed value investor Bruce Berkowitz. Berkowitz’s Fairholme Fund has around 80% of the fund in the stock. Kuppy has outlined thesis in a few fund letters e.g. here.
BAT: 3.5%. Added a few weeks ago at ~£23. 6 P/E, 10% yield and growing. Ultimate contrarian ESG play. Capital allocation looks backwards (debt pay-down, dividend and share buybacks), but should still work.
was on by and wrote a a piece here.Alibaba: 1%. A recent addition in low $70s. Single-digit P/E. Huge cash balance. “China uninvestable”, zero terminal value etc I know, I know… just seems too good an entry point for a small position. When The Party starts trying to prop up the stock market, BABA stock and Chinese state interests may begin to be aligned.
Me Group: 1.4%. A true old world boring business model (photo kiosks & laundrettes). Very little competition, attractive growth, high ROIC and an undemanding valuation. Think I came across it from @Sksel465 (SpruceHill Capital) on Twitter.
Daktronics: 1.2%. Another really boring business doing LED screens for live events, stadiums, road signs etc. In the process of a capital renewal cycle. Connor Haley @AltaFoxCapital on Twitter has detailed the investment case.
- has mentioned it a few times too, for example here.
Terravest: 0.9%. Serial acquirer with an excellent track-record. See write-up from Plural Investing in their letter here.
ADF Group: 0.8%. Complex steel structure manufacturing. Recently transformed manufacturing process. Another one from
with the latest post here.Constellation Software: 0.6%. Unfortunately I’ve been late to the Constellation party. Small positions across the spectrum of Constellation related companies. Does it look expensive? Yes. Can it keep the same ROIC at this size? I don’t know. But it is a stunning track-record and it is my exposure to tech.
Lumine: 0.4%.
Topicus: 0.4%.
Pinetree Capital: 0.4%.
Sotera: 0.6%. Cheap compounder in a duopoly market with significant pricing power. Legal headlines continue to weigh on stock, unfairly IMHO. Write-up here.
Evolution AB: 0.6%. Twitter fave. Provides online game architecture for casinos. Write-up by
here.Xpel: 0.6%. Late to this, still valuation seems undemanding here.
worth following for this one, an early stage investor and still updates regularly.Atlas Engineered Products: 0.4%. Recent entry, regret passing on it several years ago. Canada Microcap favourite, investor deck here.
Fairfax Financial: 0.4%. Muddy Waters usually great, this report looked oddly poor quality. Given opportunity decided to add in aftermath of that report. Very small starter position.
Happy hunting,
The Geez
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